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Extreme CDS

As someone who declared war on Larry Summers when he was President of Harvard, I feel comfortable asking Josh Marshall this question - what in the hell are you talking about when you write this?

Just at the level of optics, since the economy is issue number one right now (and not just the real economy of jobs and living standards but the financial architecture itself) and you're trying to look forward not back, why would you pick someone for Treasury who was not only in the Clinton administration but was actually Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration. Not understanding that.

Let's see Josh - because the Clinton Administration is synonymous with a robust economy and a Presidential Administration that knew how to manage the economy? That being perceived to be like the Clinton Administration on the economy would inspire exceptionally high confidence in the country and on Wall Street? Is Josh Marshall so far gone in his Clinton Derangement Syndrome that he does not know this? Honestly, what is wrong with him?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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    In answer to your question, (5.00 / 7) (#1)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:03:12 AM EST
    Yes, he is that far gone in CDS. But it's not just that. His thinking is so shallow and superficial overall IMO - exemplified here by his emphasis on the 'optics' of the choice, rather than whether it would actually be a good choice based on, you know, actually helping fix the economy.  

    Wow (5.00 / 5) (#2)
    by Steve M on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:04:55 AM EST
    Good post, BTD.  At a time of economic crisis, when Treasury Secretary is arguably the most important appointment there is, why the heck would you worry about "optics" - as opposed to, say, wanting the best-qualified person for that critical job?  Josh is behaving like one of the proverbial "people who don't need a President."  Maybe he's bored now that he no longer gets to spend his day thinking up creative ways to call John McCain a racist.

    I'm not a fan of Summers for the position but I assure you it has nothing to do with the "optics."  (Harvard is significant but only insofar as many critics believe he was a horrible administrator, a skill you definitely need to run a Cabinet department.)  It's true that appointing Clinton-era people would reassure Wall Street, but the problem with the market is not that investors fear Obama will pursue some radical Marxist policy.  The problem is based on fundamentals, stuff like the unemployment rate and a slowdown in the retail sector as we head into the holidays.  Fix the economic indicators and the market will rally; people are way past worrying about "optics" right now.

    Perhaps (5.00 / 2) (#3)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:08:06 AM EST
    he is thinking about "change" incorrectly.  Perhaps the "change" argument to him means no former admin officials, where does he stand on Rahm would be the question of how he defines change.

    The real reason to take issue with Summers was his comment in 2005 about men's "higer variance in relevant innate abilities or innate preference" regarding why there weren't enough women in math and science.  Or that staff members felt "intimidated" by him when they disagreed with him, several prominent members leaving abruptly etc.

    I did love his free trade assesment relative to waste in underdeveloped countries and it would be nice to have that sort of conscience in someone that wasn't so boltonish in his mgmt style.

    Summers comment (5.00 / 0) (#14)
    by gyrfalcon on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:10:15 AM EST
    let's please remember, was not an assertion, it was a question.

    His management style is nasty, apparently, but the Harvard staff and professors are spectacularly thin-skinned and take umbrage in a nanosecond.  They're used to extraordinary collegiality and deference from all.

    Folks at Treasury (and the exec. branch overall) are not such delicate flowers and would not need to be clutching the smelling salts every five minutes.

    He was temperamentally an extraordinarily bad choice for Harvard, but not as problematic in government.

    Parent

    This is what a friend of mine (5.00 / 2) (#17)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:17:16 AM EST
    said to me yesterday re: summers' comments about gender differences in math and science academia. So I went back and got the transcript and re-read it last night, wondering if I'd somehow imagined how bad it was. I didn't.

    He really did say that there is evidence of potential innate gender differences (there isn't), and he really did trivialize the possibility (shown in many publications) of the effects of socialization, etc.

    If any of these things had been said vis a vis racial differences, the outcry would have been enormous.

    Good old Bell Curve Larry. I so hope he does not become part of this 'progressive' administration.

    Parent

    Got a link to the transcript? (5.00 / 0) (#20)
    by gyrfalcon on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:47:12 AM EST
    I'd be interested to reread it because that's not how I remember it in context.  If I remember right, it was part of a discussion of the difficulty they were having of finding qualified female candidates for tenured professorships in math and science departments.

    It's also really not right to flatly state that there is no evidence of gender differences. There certainly have been some studies that have at least preliminarily suggested that there are such differences.  One could try to argue those are entirely the fault of socialization in infancy and early childhood, but that doesn't help the math and science departments figure out what to do about their problem.

    It's a touchy question, and Summers blundered into it like a rhinocerous.  Bad on him.

    Parent

    The correct answer (5.00 / 1) (#23)
    by Fabian on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:02:16 AM EST
    is that we need to do more to encourage women etc to choose and excel at careers in these fields.

    The Not MY Fault! mentality doesn't help anyone, unless you count preserving the status quo as helping people.  

    Parent

    Here you go... (none / 0) (#28)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:38:49 AM EST
    http://www.president.harvard.edu/speeches/2005/nber.html

    We may have to agree to disagree on this one - to me, the remarks are outrageous and unsupported.

    But that's OK.:)

    Parent

    Save for open thread? (none / 0) (#33)
    by Manuel on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 11:01:40 AM EST
    I am curious.  Did you find all the remarks outrageous or just some of them?  Taking the whole presentation in context I found the remarks provocative but not completely out of bounds.

    Parent
    Only some of them (none / 0) (#40)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 01:03:22 PM EST
    regarding the innate differences in ability. I agree the rest was OK. Later - open thread.

    Parent
    Later . . . (none / 0) (#42)
    by wurman on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 03:14:25 PM EST
    oh, so scary! (none / 0) (#43)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 03:36:54 PM EST
    Yeah, facts are scary (none / 0) (#46)
    by wurman on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 04:38:38 PM EST
    not your 'facts' (5.00 / 1) (#48)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 06:11:31 PM EST
    just a bunch of libertarian and right-wing screeds against 'pc feminists'

    Parent
    Didn't read the material, did you? (none / 0) (#56)
    by wurman on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 08:12:42 PM EST
    Sex Differences in Mental Test Scores, Variability, and Numbers of High-Scoring Individuals
    Larry V. Hedges and Amy Nowell
    Science, New Series, Vol. 269, No. 5220 (Jul. 7, 1995), pp. 41-45   (article consists of 5 pages)
    Published by: American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Abstract
    Sex differences in central tendency, variability, and numbers of high scores on mental tests have been extensively studied. Research has not always seemed to yield consistent results, partly because most studies have not used representative samples of national populations. An analysis of mental test scores from six studies that used national probability samples provided evidence that although average sex differences have been generally small and stable over time, the test scores of males consistently have larger variance. Except in tests of reading comprehension, perceptual speed, and associative memory, males typically outnumber females substantially among high-scoring individuals.
    Want the full article?
    Login to access JSTOR, or check our access options. You may have access for free through an institution.

    My italics & underline.

    Yuppers, that darned old liberterian, right wing American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science & their study found it's way into "Marginal Revolution" somehow.

    It's unlikely you have the background in maths & statistics to argue against the abstract referenced above (although possible).  And you obviously did not read the "Marginal Revolution" references & comments.

    I quote from the study (VR is variance ratio):

    Greater male variance is indicated by VR > 1.0. All VRs, by state and grade, are >1.0 [range 1.11 to 1.21].

    Notice that the greater male variance is observable in the earliest data, grade 2.  (In addition, higher male VRS have been noted for over a century).  Now the study authors clearly wanted to downplay this finding so they wrote things like "our analyses show greater male variability, although the discrepancy in variances is not large."  Which is true in some sense but the point is that small differences in variance can make for big differences in outcome at the top.  The authors acknowledge this with the following:

    If a particular specialty required mathematical skills at the 99th percentile, and the gender ratio is 2.0, we would expect 67% men in the occupation and 33% women. Yet today, for example, Ph.D. programs in engineering average only about 15% women.

    So even by the authors' calculations you would expect twice as many men as women in engineering PhD programs due to math-ability differences alone (compare with the media reports above).

    These test scores, the data, the analyses, & the results are not "opinion optional" for those who don't like gender differences.

    You apparently have a different opinion, which is unfortunate.  It limits your capability to consider the outcomes of the consistent facts that a) lots of males are less capable on tests of intelligence than most females; b) most females, on average, score better than most males, on average; & c) a few males score very much higher on such tests than any females.

    The fact that such facts appear on what you view as some politically biased site does not make the test(s) & the results any less valid.

    Finally, the comments section at MR does an excellent job of analyzing the entire process of test scores, academic achievents, non-academic skills & attainments, & (yuppers) the distribution of professorships at so-called "high level" colleges.  And most of the comments are written by mathmeticians (i.e., rocket scientists) & maths professors.  It's an interesting "read" for anyone genuinely interested in the subject.  You may enjoy the arguments.

    To repeat: this stuff ain't about opinions.  It's measurable data which has been measured often for a very long time.

    Finally, I used to be a college admissions counselor & worked with this "stuff" every day.

    Parent

    As I wrote (none / 0) (#5)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:10:09 AM EST
    My war on Summers when he was Harvard President is a matter of record.

    Parent
    too early i missed that (none / 0) (#7)
    by Jlvngstn on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:21:25 AM EST
    in the first sentence, I don't know how i missed it but i did.

    I am leaning with Baker on Sheila Bair.  

    Parent

    I haven't read Baker (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by Steve M on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:25:45 AM EST
    but Sheila Bair has been impressively creative in her attempts to renegotiate IndyMac's mortgages.  A working program of that sort is a necessary prerequisite for any sort of larger-scale HOLC thing.

    Parent
    Optics of "Change" (none / 0) (#30)
    by squeaky on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:50:45 AM EST
    Not so much CDS.As you say. Many who supported Obama because he represented a new generation of politicians who did not have he old ways tied to them.

    Of course that was all smoke and mirrors because he ran a campaign much like Bill Clinton.

    JM is referring to the fact that Obama is not going to look like mr change if he picks many or most of his staff from past administrations.

    Oh, and we all know that JM does have CDS, although his point here is not limited to that, imo.

    Parent

    He lives in a TPM bubble (5.00 / 3) (#4)
    by WS on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:08:20 AM EST
    In the real world, people remember the 90's with economic good times and that helped build the Democratic brand on the economy as well as help the Obama campaign.

    Before Clinton, Dems had the Carter albatross on the economy (I like Carter especially his post Presidency though).    

    Can this be a serious question? (5.00 / 5) (#6)
    by dws3665 on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:15:48 AM EST
    Is Josh Marshall so far gone in his Clinton Derangement Syndrome that he does not know this?

    All of a sudden, now that Obama has won, did you expect him to be cured and resume (begin?) providing thoughtful analysis? Your powers of optimism are impressive.

    True enough (5.00 / 2) (#8)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:22:08 AM EST
    Terminal CDS Diagnosis (5.00 / 5) (#9)
    by robrecht on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:23:29 AM EST
    Well, CDS is a degenerative neurological condition with no known cure.  As far as I know, the only minimally effective treatment is irrelevance.

    This new meme of optics doesn't fit (5.00 / 4) (#11)
    by tigercourse on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:40:58 AM EST
    into my non creative class paradigm. After you spend too much time on blogs, everyone starts to sound like Cliff Clavin.

    Summers Should Be Toxic (5.00 / 2) (#12)
    by msaroff on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 08:53:24 AM EST
    As should anyone with a long history at Wall Street investment banks.

    Volker, I could see, but part of the fix here is to separate, "What's good for Wall Street" from, "What's good for the country."

    Also, Summers carries some of the blame on the meltdown, just like some members of the Carter administration bear some of the blame for the Savings & Loan debacle, because the deregulatory push started under both of their supervision.

    We need someone in there who is actively hostile to the culture of Wall Street.

    I'm willing to say it is not CDS (5.00 / 2) (#13)
    by scribe on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:02:56 AM EST
    but rather a recognition that Summers (and, for that matter, Rubin) were at the wheel when a lot of the deregulatory and market-schemer changes which Repugs and their Wall Street buddies pushed through, went through.

    Glass-Stegall was repealed in 1999 (after Wall Street and the WSJ had been trying for near to 15 or 20 years - go read WSJ editorials from the 80s demanding that then if you don't believe me.  I did then and remember them well).   Summers and Rubin were in charge during the 90s(I, frankly, don't remember which was when - but WJC put them there) and a lot of the cancers which came to full flower in the last couple years of Bushism got their start under their stewardship.

    So, do you ratify the bad decision-making these two have evinced by giving them the same or better jobs now?  Or, do you recognize they made decisions which were foreseeably going to lead to the mess we are in now?  

    The boom of the 90s was several years in the making - it really started about the same time as Clinton took office in 93 but didn't get moving in a perceptible way until after 2 or 3 years.  One could even argue persuasively that the event which was the big "cusp" event was the introduction of Windows 95 in August 1995.  Before that event, the internet was still the domain of geeks and seriously tech-addled;  afterward, it became the place to go and be.  That led, pretty directly, to the tech and dot-com boom-and-bubbles of the late 1990s.  And those had their air escape early in 2001, after the Y2k catastrophe fizzled.  That fizzle, in turn, I (had predicted and) ascribed to the fact that a lot of the businesses with older-model computers had decided that replacing them would both avoid any Y2K problems and ensure they had ample computing power going forward.  Once that wave of capital investment had been made, there was no need for further investment for a couple years and everyone started looking at the underlying companies they'd hyped in the dot-com bubble.  And realized they were worth ... not much.

    Both boom times and bust times take years to get going.  Often, the change is not apparent until much later.  Recognizing when that change takes place is the art of investing - ask Buffett.

    The point about Summers and Rubin is that they were participants in and beneficiaries of the whole bubble and bust scheme which Greenspan and the Randites foisted on the country starting back in the Nixon administration.  And, given Summers and Rubin have been successful in their professional lives by living that philosophy and practice of economics, there is nothing to indicate they would provide any solutions which are not in keeping with the same template.

    And that means, to me, that selecting either of them (or their acolytes) would mean a mere continuation of the same stupid policies which have put us in the mess we are trying to get out of.

    In other words, if you realize you are in a hole and want to get out, the first thing to do is stop digging.  Which is why neither of them should get a job.  

    Yes, but still CDS in Josh's case (5.00 / 4) (#16)
    by Dr Molly on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:12:57 AM EST
    Because he did not make the very substantive and salient critique that you (and msaroff above) did re: summers; he merely suggested the optics of past Clinton association is what makes this a bad choice.

    Parent
    That is just wrong (none / 0) (#18)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:19:05 AM EST
    Glass Steagal repeal had nothing to do with the crisis today.

    I defy you to make the case that it was. I have made the case at this web site that it was not.

    I think you have your own case of CDS.

    Parent

    I know you've made that case (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by scribe on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:32:14 AM EST
    but you were and are plain wrong.

    The core problem Glass-Stegall addressed was commingling investment banking and brokerage on the one hand with retail finance (i.e., direct to consumer banking services).  It addressed that problem by prohibiting cross-ownership/activity - a company could be either an investment bank or a retail bank/financial service provider, but not both. Moreover, it tried to keep retail brokerage separate from both.

    The reasons are, were, and should remain obvious:  

    (1) when you can get all the financial services at one stop, the provider of those services has every incentive to structure the transactions you, consumer, have with the provider in such a way as to maximize the profit to that provider.  That profit comes from the consumer's wallet.
    (2) the risks one side of the provider's business takes are inevitably communicated throughout the entire business of the provider.  This is an example of something lawyers call "cross-collateralization".  To oversimplify an example, in the context of an individual, a cross-collateralization would be putting your car up as security for the loan you are taking out to buy that big-screen TV.  Everything is fine as long as you keep making the payments on everything (i.e., the income stream continues) but the minute the model breaks down (an unexpected expense or interruption in the income stream), everything collapses in a hurry.

    Sound familiar?  Glass-Stegall was enacted as an empirical fix to the markets, to prevent precisely the same kind of collapse-spreading we've just seen - which was behind the 1929 crash.  In other words, by forcing companies to stay in only one market segment, it both provided a firebreak against collapse, and forced realistic appraisal of risk.  Risk could not be palmed off from an unsafe part of a company to a safer part of that company.

    AIG, for one, and Bear and the other investment houses all had lots of profitable parts of their overall business.  But they wound up in or on the way to the graveyard because they took risks in one part of their business which risks were communicated throughout the whole of their business.  While a lot of people - to a degree correctly - have attributed the rapid spread of the collapse to the extent of leverage in mortgage derivative and other transactions, it was the "all under one roof" model of the finance company that all these businesses subscribed to that led inevitably to the whole edifice collapsing.  And it was that "all under one roof" model that Glass-Stegall prohibited.

    I recall a smaller, though no less significant, incident back in the 90s - during the height of the tech/dot-com boom.  I was dating someone who worked in one department of a large investment house.  Christmas bonus time came and top management announced "no bonuses this year".  And layoffs, right before Christmas.  This was not because they had done a bad job, nor because they had not made profit.  It was the dot-com boom and they were printing money and picking winning stocks by tossing darts at the agate pages of the WSJ. Rather, it was because a couple knuckleheads trading derivatives had made a series of trades which wiped out the entire company's profit for the year, from which bonuses would have been paif.  "Knuckleheads" was a post-hoc name - they would have been heroes had the trades been profitable.  But, they weren't.  And everyone suffered.

    The CDOs and mortgage-backed securities which are the kernel of the issues we're presently dealing with are, in their essence, a form of insurance.  They spread risk.  But, the companies putting them together were allowed to escape all the regulations (not the least of which are loss reserve requirements) pertaining to insurance, merely by saying they weren't insurance.  In other words, even though it had webbed feet and feathers, walked like a duck and talked like a duck, by calling it a pony, the companies were permitted to put a saddle on it and ride.  And sell tickets to ride.  As long as that pony's stubby little legs and webbed feet held up, it was all giddyap all the time.  And everyone believed it was a pony.  

    But, when that pony's little legs gave out, the same dunderheads waiting in line stood around saying "why did you call this duck a pony?  I was supposed to ride it next - I've already paid for my ticket."  And the ride operator was already over the hill with the gate proceeds.

    The thing about insurance - and CDOs, swaps and all the rest are insurance, regardless of being called something else - is that it is a boring industry.  The actuarial tables tell, in painful detail, how much the risk is.  And they prescribe how to address risk.  The laws and regulations governing insurance pretty much prescribe how much profit can be made on it.

    All of this is pretty much anathema to your typical investment hotshot who wants more than the law allows - for himself.  And needs the rush of beating his buddies in the number of dollars' profit he puts up on the scoreboard.

    But most importantly, every time an insurance business fails, it fails because someone in a senior position in the company tried to get around the rules and tried to make more profit than the laws and regulations provided.  You can look to the history of insurance company failures and you'll see "overinvestment in junk bonds", "inadequate loss reserves", "overinvestment in penny stocks", "failure to diversify investment risk" and similar causes in every case.

    And that's what we have here, made worse by the lack of Glass-Stegall having filled the firebreaks with tinder and cans of gasoline.

    Parent

    Your missive (none / 0) (#37)
    by NYShooter on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 12:28:12 PM EST
    Is interesting reading, not to mention chuckle-evoking, and mostly undebateable. But (there's always a "but") as the distinctions in de facto de jure, it matters in whose hands the joystick is gripped.

    A great military is an asset if it's used as a deterrent, not so good if it's used for aggression. One could argue (o.k. I'm the one making the argument) that, had Clinton been able to remain in office, he would have made the proper corrective moves to preclude the catastrophic results that occurred when the joystick was handed over to the boy/man Bush.

    There's always the problem when we take a snapshot of an historical event, and try to promote an agenda by using the always handy, "It happened on his watch" meme.

    I'm certainly not claiming you were disingenuous in your remarks, quite the contrary. I just wanted to add that a little context is necessary in these types of discussions. The Glass-Steagall (or is it Steagle?) debate should be looked at as a moving train, not an inert mathematical formula.    


    Parent

    Undebateable? (none / 0) (#39)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 01:01:06 PM EST
    It is pure nonsense. Do you know what Glass Steagall is? Because I am guessing no.

    Parent
    What balderdash (none / 0) (#38)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 01:00:32 PM EST
    Utter BS. You write "The CDOs and mortgage-backed securities which are the kernel of the issues we're presently dealing with are, in their essence, a form of insurance.  They spread risk.  But, the companies putting them together were allowed to escape all the regulations (not the least of which are loss reserve requirements) pertaining to insurance, merely by saying they weren't insurance."

    They are not. Insurance is insurance. Period. Hedging is hedging. Puts and options existed when we had Glass Steagall and when we did not. Mortgage backed securities existed when we had Glass Steagall and when we did not.

    Hell, if your issue was escaping regulation, then why in the world are you even mentioning Glass Steagall. I think it is because you do not even know what it is.

    You really have no idea what you are talking about.


    Parent

    Hmm (5.00 / 2) (#41)
    by reslez on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 01:59:35 PM EST
    I believe you are confused as well. Credit default swaps are a derivative that does indeed function as a form of insurance, but has been exempt from the regulation applied to insurance products. CDS contracts are at the heart of the market meltdown. There are around $60 trillion of them (notional value) floating around.

    The repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 is a side issue. Glass-Steagall has been effectively moot since 1993 when Primerica bought up Travelers.   As for root causes of the financial crisis, I would point to:

    • the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000
    • the lack of oversight by the Fed (capital requirements and lending standards of member banks)
    • the SEC's 2004 consolidated supervised entities program which allowed investment banks to reach 30:1 leverage ratios.

    Thanks to the SEC there are no more independent investment banks left to be impacted by Glass-Steagall. Hedging is hedging, insurance is insurance, and sometimes hedging is insurance.

    Parent

    l.o.l. ! (none / 0) (#47)
    by NYShooter on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 04:53:56 PM EST
    Of course I know Glass-Steagal. Together with his partner, Hymie (three-thumbs) Ludenbaum,  he was a shylock on Neptune Ave. where I grew up, and paying him back on due day was "undebateable."

    But to continue the silliness, I believe I stated that "most" of "Scribe's very long statement was undebateable. If you believe that repeal of G-S had nothing, even tangentially, to do with fostering the climate of "anything goes," which led to a mutant avarice the likes of which shocks the conscious, and  culminated in today's calamity, I respect your opinion.

    And BTW, puts are options, not puts "and" options.


    Parent

    No (none / 0) (#49)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:37:02 PM EST
    Puts are not options. Puts are contracts to sell. They must be covered by buying the stock that you agreed to sell.

    An option is an option to buy. You do not have to exercise it.

    Parent

    Puts And Calls (none / 0) (#50)
    by squeaky on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:19:08 PM EST
    Are both options. Unless things have changed from the 80's.

    One is an option to sell and one is an option to buy. It used to be that you could purchase either or sell either, without owning the underlying stock. That was called trading naked options. Owning the stock and selling puts and calls is a basic hedge strategy.

    Parent

    Thank you Squeaky (none / 0) (#51)
    by NYShooter on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:45:03 PM EST
    I'm really honored to be groin kicked by Herr BTD; until today, a "pfffft" was all I managed to elicit from our author.

    But I agree much more than not, and his intensity is a welcome tonic from the bland pablum that passes for discourse in much of the media today.

    The day I'm the recipient of a double roundhouse kick to the jaw is the day I've "arrived!"

    Parent

    That is just wrong (none / 0) (#52)
    by Big Tent Democrat on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 08:12:51 AM EST
    A put covers someone's right to buy a stock. If they exercise their option to buy, you have to buy the stock in order to meet your obligation.

    Consider the exercise of each right.

    When would you exercise your option to buy? When your option price is below the market price. When would you not? When the option price is above the market price. Now who is on the other side of that transaction? Someone sold the option. That means they have an obligation to sell if the option to buy is exercised.

    Thus, that person has no option - he has an obligation that is subject to the exercise of it by the holder of the option.

    The converse is also true of course. The person who sold the put, the option to sell, is obligated to purchase the issue at the agreed to price. Now that price might be above or below the market price and that will determine whtehr the put is exercised. But the risk is not indeterminate. The contract price is fixed.

    The difference between the risk involved in an option to buy and an obligation to sell is clear.

    The cost of the option is fixed. The cost of the obligation to sell is not.

    Here is an example -

    I have an option to purchse stock in X Corp. at $1. The option cost me 0.10, for the sake of argument. I am betting the price will be above $1.10 in order to make money.

    What is the most I could lose? $0.10.

    Now Assume I am on the other side of this trade - that I have the obligation to sell, to whit, I am shorting the stock. I have an obligation to sell the stock at $1. I am betting the price will be lower than $1. Now what is my risk? In theory, it is infinite. If the stock price is $100, I lose 99$. If 1000, $999, and so on.

    To call both position comparable seems to me ridiculous.

    Consider the outcry against "short selling." What sdo you think that is about? It is about the pressure that short sellers place on a sotck price because of their need to cover their positions.

    When I say "put" - I am talking about the sale side of the option to buy.

    And that is the important comonent on the market.

    A pure "put" is not a big deal. The sale side of an option to buy is the short seller. That is what matters.

    Parent

    Wow, thank yiu (none / 0) (#53)
    by NYShooter on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 11:51:10 AM EST
    for continuing this conversation.

    I have to rush out to a meeting this afternoon, but please check back later in the day when I'll have a chance to respond.

    I believe you're wrong, but before I bet my first born (make that my second born) I would like to think it through.

    Parent

    Options (none / 0) (#54)
    by squeaky on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 02:16:35 PM EST
    Maybe we are talking about two different meanings of the word options here but clearly Option trading encompasses puts and calls. Both are called options.

    The terminology of stock option trading is broken into two categories, namely puts and calls. Puts are options just as much as calls are options, together they comprise a variety of strategies called option trading. That is all I was responding to when I said both put and calls are "options".

    It has been over twenty years since I have done option trading so I am a bit rusty, but had a firm grasp on the complexities back then. On stable stocks I owned I sold both puts and calls hoping that they would expire worthless at the end of a three month contract. This was a conservative strategy called straddling or some variation of that.

    On stocks I did not own I did naked option trading which required collateral. The risk had no limit of how much money I could lose.

    Luckily I could not stand being a financial junkie aka compulsive gambler and got out before the famous black monday in October 1987. Had I not gotten out of stock trading two months before that I would still be paying back the brokerage house today.

    Parent

    Anyway (none / 0) (#55)
    by squeaky on Fri Nov 07, 2008 at 07:09:13 PM EST
    I do not disagree with what you have said after re reading it again. I just find it odd that you use the term option in such an idiosyncratic way and distinguish it from puts. Calls can be short sales as well. If you are write or sell a call. The seller has an obligation to sell the stock at the buyers option.

    Same with selling puts. The seller has the obligation to sell the stock at the buyers option.

    Hence these are called options. A metonym, or is it a synechdote?

    Parent

    Instead of using the word "optics" ... (5.00 / 8) (#15)
    by Robot Porter on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:11:03 AM EST
    Josh might as well have said "Summers has Clinton cooties" and left it at that.

    Cute terminology can never hide a juvenile intent.

    I've always suspected (5.00 / 2) (#21)
    by eric on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:52:54 AM EST
    that Josh was a republican or quasi-republican in the 1990's.  We know that he has had some kind of affinity for Lieberman, as well.  Or, maybe he was one of those dems that internalized the anti-Clintonism that abounded then.

    I also put Aravosis in this category.

    That might be true of Aravosis (5.00 / 2) (#36)
    by Shawn on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 12:00:11 PM EST
    But it's not really true of Josh. I started reading TPM a few months after it first started, in January '01 or so. He was pretty much a stalwart Clinton (and Gore) supporter back then, who even defended Bill on the Marc Rich pardons. And in the '04 cycle, he was a sotto voce supporter of Wes Clark, who, of course, had lots of Clinton connections. I don't think he was ever a fan of Hillary for president, but he was relatively fair to her until the SC primary, when he started to move into fulltime Clinton-bashing/Obama flackery. That coincided with the bulk of the self-perceived Democratic intelligentsia flipping to Obama. It was quite similar to his sudden support of the Iraq war a few days before it started, when he cited "liberal hawks" like Ken Pollack in justifying the invasion. Essentially, he's very influenced by elite peer pressure, and as Kos and others have gained influence, blogosphere peer pressure.

    Basically, he's a hack and a bandwagon-jumper, not a closet Republican. I think his CDS is more of a career move/effort to fit in than a natural condition. But then, I haven't read him in many months.

    Parent

    Not very incisive (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by Manuel on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:54:32 AM EST
    There are valid resons to worry about Summers but association with Clinton and "optics" are very shallow.  Why can't we heave better left blogging?

    One could mention the controversies surrounding Summers.  Obama doesn't need or want those distractions brought up again.  Particularly if there are other suitable candidates with or without Clinton associations.  Mind you, I reread Summer's gender remarks and I find them provovative but not disqualifying for Treasury.

    One could also mention the Reich vs. Rubin argument that took place early on in the Clinton administration.  Will there be a similar argument in the Obama administration?  Shouldn't there be?

    accolades and curses (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by koshembos on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:59:07 AM EST
    Obama is called a great politician, highly intelligent, etc. None of these is based on proper analysis or facts. It may turn out to be true. Obama won the primaries because of rigged caucuses and use of racism. He was even or slightly behind McCain until the financial collapse.

    As a protection, and kind of whistling in a grave yard, his supporters have alway and will until Obama achieves real and not fake achievements to hate Bill Clinton. Bill is simply way more intelligent, proved himself a masterful politician and brought affluence and peace. He also had the courage to bring up gay in the military right out of the gates. Let's see what Obama will do.

    The country needs Obama to do well, we wish him well, but let's apply proper analysis to reality and not MSM type of nonsense.

    Cognitive dissonance (5.00 / 3) (#34)
    by standingup on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 11:02:45 AM EST
    coming home to roost.  Josh and so many others failed to pick up that their rejection of Hillary via supporting Obama was not a rejection of Bill.  The number of former Clinton administration members involved with Obama's campaign was not exactly a secret.  I would not be surprised to see us end up with an administration that more closely mirrors Bill's than if we had ended up with Hillary in the oval office.  

    Good God--did Josh expect Obama (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by ThatOneVoter on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 11:12:21 AM EST
    to consult with him?!

    Pretty sure... (none / 0) (#19)
    by Punchy on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:44:38 AM EST
    ...his problem with Summers is almost completely based on his management style, not his competence or track record.  His complaints stem from his belief that this man will be unwilling to be flexible in considering alternate or unconventional methods to fix the economy, and his role in deregulation.  To say he has "CDS" is over-the-top and intentionally misleading.

    pretty sure (5.00 / 1) (#24)
    by dws3665 on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:05:06 AM EST
    you're not reading where he makes the argument that the "optics" of choosing people affiliated with the Clinton administration is the problem. Or what part of why would you pick someone for Treasury who was not only in the Clinton administration but was actually Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration are you not getting? This is the FIRST THING he mentions re: Summers.

    Talk about intentionally misleading (or obtuse).

    Parent

    On the Other Hand (none / 0) (#22)
    by kaleidescope on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 09:53:00 AM EST
    The dot-dom bubble burst in 2000, while Clinton was president.  Remember Web Van and Pets.com?  Those were icons of the Clinton economy.  So was Enron, Worldcom, and electricity deregulation.

    If you look around Humboldt County, you'd see that during the height of the housing bubble, employment was great for carpenters, heavy equipment operators, mortgage brokers, real estate agents, etc.

    Somehow Clinton avoided being blamed for the collapse of the Clinton bubble and Bush got blamed for the collapse of the Bush bubble.

    In both instances it was an Alan Greenspan economy that depended on bubbles to allow connected insiders to make greater than what should have been the normal rate of return.

    The dotcom bubble was a special case. (none / 0) (#25)
    by Fabian on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:11:54 AM EST
    Not many bubbles are a combination of "vaporware" (nonexistent product or services) and stock market euphoria.  As bubbles go, the dotcom bubble was pretty short and not all that painful.  It did create a tax windfall for the federal government - unlike the other bubbles...

    The purpose of deliberately supporting the construction/housing bubble was to support an economy that losing manufacturing and other middle class jobs at an alarming pace.  They were shoring up a weak economy and making it look better than it was, temporarily.  Without a concurrent increase in real wages, the building boom was doomed.  

    Parent

    Web Van Wasn't Vaporware? (none / 0) (#29)
    by kaleidescope on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:49:03 AM EST
    he's an idiot. (none / 0) (#26)
    by cpinva on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 10:21:29 AM EST
    Honestly, what is wrong with him?

    any other questions?

    Lots of people (none / 0) (#44)
    by progressiveinvolvement on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 04:00:05 PM EST
    are wondering what happened to Marshall, hence the moniker, WKJM--"Who Kidnapped Josh Marshall?"

    I think he bought into the hype, i.e. he really believes it.  Thus, he has the fervor and lack of perspective of all true believers in whatever.

    Plus, he has ambition.  Does he really think Obama is going to make him the "Josh Lyman" of the administration?

    Looking back 10 years for a scapegoat (none / 0) (#45)
    by wurman on Thu Nov 06, 2008 at 04:05:31 PM EST
    to tar & feather because of Bu$hInc's absolute inability to manage ANYTHING is no longer funny.

    Perhaps President-elect Obama is prepared to take the criticisms of Larry Summers--who will be roundly blasted by the lame stream media for his various violations of politically correct comments & behaviors.  Having an actually smart guy with experience doing any cabinet job (but especially treasury) would be a large improvement over the last 7.9 years.

    What a novel concept.