Obama faced a unique situation when he started running. He had to find a difficult balance between being the "unity" candidate, who represented all Americans, and being "black". Early in the game, some black people seemed to feel that he was not "like them", and had laid a false claim to sharing the African American experience, since none of his ancestor's were slaves. He also had little reputation within the black community. Many black people rejected him in favor of Clinton, who had a reputation as a person who was supportive of Civil Rights. Axelrod knew that if Obama was to win, he needed those votes to balance out the minority of racists in the Democratic Party, who would be reluctant to vote for a black candidate. So he used a "divide and conquer" strategy to convince black people that Clinton was race-baiting, while at the same time Obama stood above it all as the "post-racial" candidate. They used race and denied it at the same time. But that couldn't last. You can't run as two different people. People may not be exactly sure why they feel that something is wrong, but they know that they can't quite figure out who you are, and they don't quite trust you. Most black people have stood together, because who on earth is going to refuse to oppose perceived racism, especially when you and your ancestors have been victims of that racism? Most non-black people were unaware of the conflict, though. They saw the media image of the post-racial candidate, they saw Obama though the filter that he wanted them to see him through. Until Wright. Obama was forced to make a choice with Wright. He could "throw Wright under the bus", and reject his black community ties, or he could try to explain to people why Wright said the things he did, and why he put up with it. His speech was simply not good enough. He didn't make his case. The media loved it, but people didn't get it. People started seeing the contradiction between who Obama was and who he was running as. Seed of doubt grew, and Obama is now paying the penalty.

He may still overcome this, but not with the muddled message he has been using lately. He can't seem to get back on message. "Hope" and "Unity" have turned into "attack Clinton". He seems defensive, even hostile, toward the press. His "different kind of politics" message is being shown to be the lie it alwasy was, as he reverts to standard political phrases and commercials to gain support. He is trying desperately to convince voter's that he is like every other politician in the world, at the same time as he is telling them that he is unlike other politicans.

Like I've said before, this didn't need to happen. If Obama had waited until he had a more established a reputation among the voter's it would have been much easier for him to convince them he was "like them", regardless of skin shade. He could have passed some bills, including some Civil Rights bills (preferably ones which benefitted Latino's as well as blacks), and established a reputation as someone who was going to fight for the rights of all groups. He could have skipped the divisive tactics and run as someone with feel planted in both the white and black communities - a truly post-racial candidate. The sad truth is that I think he really is that person, but in order to overcome Obama's negatives (particularly his inexperience), Axelrod tried to use smoke and mirrors, and that has obscured the fact that Obama is a good person who would represent all of us. He's a politician, but politicians aren't all bad. They want to help people.

McCain only needs to steal a small sliver of Clinton's coalition and Ohio, Penn, etc are gone.

That's about it.

Obama did cut into some of Hillary's white male vote, but that changed after Ohio and Texas.  I think many men vote for Obama because they didn't want to vote for Hillary, but since she's really gotten out there on the campaign trail, they see the "real" Hillary, not the MSM demonized Hillary.  The women vote for Hillary may have decreased but that's because the polls are counting ALL women, including African-American women, who are voting for Obama (well, not all, but most).

The fact is Obama has only won in states that will go RED in November.  It is only the Obama spin machine that will make you think states like Alabama and Colorado will go Dem in the Fall.

If Obama wins by less that 5% in NC, it will be a HUGE blow to his campaign, especially going into WV and KY.  Hillary is already making dents in his lead in Oregon.  

1. take the government tax off the price.
   
2. extract a windfall profit from the oil company to re-capture government revenue.
   
3. "oil company by passing on the cost of the windfall profits tax to customers" and the price goes back up to cover the lost reveneue to the oil company

The plan assume too much based upon bad economics.

It the plan had a price freeze AND a windfall profit tax... maybe it could be defended as delivering a discount at the pump and protecting revenue for road repairs.

There's no way it will happen "this summer" and it's a clear pander to buy extra votes by a desperate candidate.

Latino Voters (SUSA)

How is it even possible that this country could consider electing a Republican now???

Hillary knows this electorate. Dems are doing themselves in with their usual self-righteousness.

Californians and New Englanders look at people with a Southern drawl as culturally alien.

Yet, it's that alien landscape in the south we need to win, to win the Presidency. Kerry couldn't do it. Dukakis couldn't do it. Mondale couldn't do it.  For the left it's like looking at foreigners, or dare I say it--The enemy.

"I think that what everyone expected months ago will happen. Obama will handily win NC and Hillary will win IN."

Indiana was believed to be an easy Obama win for months.

Most telling is Obama's inability to crack 50% in any poll.

I'm thinking Hillary carries the undecideds and this thing will be very close. Maybe 52-48 Obama

That's probably the end of the election contest.

This is what I see:
Obama has no appeal to the working class. His economic policies are too academic for them and he doesn't sell them. If the election is Obama vs. McCain, the election is going to be based on national security and patriotism not the economy since both McCain and Obama have limited appeal in this area.

As a Clinton supporter, I find this trend entirely hypocritical.  A win is a win.